The Interagency Fire Center released an outlook for the upcoming fire season on Friday. 2015 could be a big year for major wildfires in the Northwest.
One important predictor of fires is the moisture level of dead wood, called the "fuel moisture value." The value is measured at several sites across the state.
John Saltenberger manages the fire weather program at the Northwest Interagency Coordination Center. He says the fuel moisture value in Central Oregon is the lowest recorded in twenty-five years.
"That's a potential indicator that our large dead logs and heavy dead branches and things that are laying around on the forest floor are unusually dry at this point," says Saltenberger. "If normal drying trends continue into the summer it appears that they'd be especially receptive to new fire starts."
The fuel moisture value isn't the only factor used in predicting wildfires, but it is an important one.
In many parts of Oregon and Washington, the snowpack is just ten to twenty percent of the average. It’s not that precipitation was low this winter, but it fell as rain rather than snow.
The wild card this summer is in the weather. If the Northwest sees dry lightning with no rain, forest and range lands could be primed to ignite.
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